The crisis with Qatar has been exacerbated by the financial problems of some of the embargo countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the emirate of Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, and the loss of their shares in the rapidly growing, purchasing-rich Qatari market, analysts said.
In this regard, an analysis of the site of the Institute of Start-up on the crisis, that both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates believed that the blockade and closure of the only land port will hit the Qatari economy
However, the Institute notes that these calculations were wrong. Qatar's imports from Saudi Arabia account for only 4.3% of its total imports, and imports from the UAE are only 8.8%. And therefore does not exceed 13.1%. But it turned out that Qatar was able to quickly compensate these imports from Turkey and Iran.
The result was that Saudi and UAE companies lost their sales in the Qatari market to Turkish companies.
The Qatari market is growing faster than the UAE and Saudi markets, and its purchasing power is high, due to the high wages expatriates receive in Qatar compared to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and even the UAE, as well as the very high income of the country's number one citizen.
"The Qatari economy is not very connected to the GCC," said Jason Thompson, economist at Capital Economics. "His business ties, mostly with Asia and Europe, as well as his investments, not with the GCC, are affected by the embargo.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates believed that the blockade would automatically lead to the earthquake of the Qatari economy and thus force Doha to accept the conditions it set. But what happened was that the Qatari economy, after a month of blockade, was able to withstand. The Qatar Stock Exchange received more foreign inflows, Foreign investment in both the Saudi and UAE stock markets. According to data published by the Qatar Exchange and the Saudi, Abu Dhabi and Dubai stock exchanges.
Experts explain the shrinking volume of foreign investments in the stock exchanges of Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, that the foreign investor, has lost confidence in investment in the embargo countries that make the political decision on the economic decision.
Investment funds and the world's most powerful financiers, who rely on money and expertise in the Saudi economy and are dependent on Dubai for their economic recovery, are astonished by the surprise of Qatar's siege and are not finding enough answers to their questions about the real reasons behind the siege.
"The reasons given by the embargo countries and the conditions they have finally given Qatar are not convincing to me as an investor," said a Western investor.
"I really feel scared about the future of investing in the region." It is known that Dubai depends on the growth of economic growth on the flow of foreign investment, compared to Abu Dhabi, which depends on oil sales. Analysts do not rule out that this crisis, which was one of the biggest enthusiasts of the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed to the detriment of Dubai.
Real estate reports in the UAE's English-language newspaper The National have pointed to a drop in rents in Dubai. The decline in real estate in Dubai usually indicates a decline in economic growth. The emirate of Dubai has lost about $ 11 billion of Qatari investments at a stage of tension between some of the GCC countries with Qatar.
In terms of Saudi Arabia's need for external borrowing, Riyadh has been facing a financial crisis for a long time due to the deterioration of oil revenues. Riyadh has sought to bridge the financial gap it is experiencing through local and international borrowing. However, this crisis has cast doubt on the stability of the Gulf region. Investors from around the world will not be enthusiastic in the future to buy the bonds Riyadh will issue, as it did in the past, or if they buy them, they will demand a high interest rate. Because investors from around the world viewed Gulf-issued bonds as guaranteed and safe bonds compared to bonds issued from other emerging markets.
Dino Kronfol, a specialist in international bonds and sukuk, says the impact of the escalation and blockade on Qatar is taking place at a critical time for the GCC, as the GCC is looking for international bond issues and is pursuing policies to diversify sources of income away. On oil, and thus is detrimental to the economies of the region and future plans to borrow from the global financial markets.
On the oil front, the IPO or sale of 5.0% of Saudi Aramco, which Saudi Arabia plans to put on the international financial markets, will be affected by this crisis, which has undermined the credibility and transparency of the economic and investment decision in the Kingdom. The crisis has also indirectly exacerbated the collapse of oil prices.
Saudi Arabia needs a high price for oil so that it can get good returns from the sale of Aramco's stake. Aramco's price assessment depends on the price of oil and political stability.